News

Thursday tips round-up: FirstGroup, Findel, ITV

06 November 2008 06:15:00

FirstGroup is not immune to economic conditions and when stripping out the performance of Greyhound, its North American profits were slightly below some analysts' expectations.

However, more than half of its global business is contracted with government entities and a 10pc hike in the interim dividend is an encouraging sign. Trading at nine times forecast earnings, this is a small premium to the sector but deserved. Buy, says the Telegraph.

That four fifths of Findel's profits are drawn from the more defensive niches of education and healthcare must reassure. So, too, should the company's adoption of more onerous credit-scoring measures and an expected fall in interest costs. The dividend is still more than twice covered by forecast earnings, so there is a good chance that Findel's 22.2p-a-share payout will be preserved. But the risk that weakening consumer spending will trigger further cuts to estimates means that Findel, at 93p, or two times earnings, is best avoided, according to the Times.

There's hope that ITV's increasingly strong roster of programming will eventually be translated into advertising money. For now, proof that the advertising market will pick up or a bid for the company may be the only events that will dramatically lift the share price in the short-term. But the long-term investor may be tempted to hold on, says the Telegraph.

Meanwhile, the Times says the ultimate fate of BSkyB's 17.9 per cent stake is no clearer, interest costs remain high, earnings forecast are falling and the halving of the interim dividend means that the same fate must be expected for the final payout. All of which suggests that it is still too early to buy ITV.

Pace remains highly vulnerable to currency swings but has net cash and, pending its ability to maintain above-average margins by getting products to market first, should continue to grow profits. At 42p, or eight times next year's earnings, Pace is a "speculative buy", according to the Times.

Cobham shares dropped more than 7.5 per cent yesterday, although some traders blamed general market volatility, and cash-strapped investors cashing in on the company's recent 20 per cent price rise, rather than specific concerns about the company or its market. Hold, says the Independent.

Rok has taken drastic measures to slash costs, including shedding 750 jobs, but it's unlikely to produce significant enough savings to plug the gap. Singer Capital Markets said: "Business levels have slumped quite dramatically, ... significantly undermining 2009 forecasts for growth." Sell, says the Telegraph.

Liberty said that net rental income increased by 4 per cent to £281.3m over the nine-month period and that occupancy levels at its subsidiary CSC's UK regional shopping centres remained unchanged at 98.7 per cent. Indeed, Liberty is often regarded as one of the most defensive of the UK real estate investment trusts, but some analysts believe its shares are expensive compared with rivals, such as Hammerson. Add this to the fact that the retail sector could be in recession until 2010, Liberty may find the next 12 months tough. Sell, says the Independent.

Nervous investors make for a brutal market, and Interserve seems to have been caught up in a more general sell-off. The pension fund deficit has made things worse but while it is not alone in having a pension issue, it is better positioned than most. Its exposure to building and construction is defensive and its activities in the emerging economies of the Middle East, another cause of concern in this market, seem secure. That said, market sentiment remains weak, and although that is not a reason to sell, it does temper confidence in the shares in the short and medium term. Hold, says the Independent.

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