News

Thursday tips round-up: Highway Insurance, Carillion, Interserve

06 September 2007 05:59:00

Those who seek the casualties of this summer's sub-prime mortgage meltdown in the United States can cross Highway Insurance off their lists. Encouragingly, Andrew Gibson, chief executive, echoed Admiral, Chaucer and Royal & SunAlliance in suggesting that motor insurance premium rates are finally on the upturn after four years in the doldrums. But it is Highway Insurance's prospective full-year dividend yield of 7.7 per cent that is the lure. The outlook for investment returns for the remainder of the year remains uncertain but the payout is covered 1.7 times by forecast earnings. Buy, says the Times.

For five years, Carillion's share price has climbed steadily. Has it more to go? Analysts think so. Trading on a price earnings multiple of 13.8 times with a forward 2008 dividend yield of 2.6pc, it is not expensive. As it has no exposure to the UK housing market and plenty of work in its £15.8bn pipeline, it should continue to thrive, says the Telegraph.

First, Interserve has an extensive portfolio of equity stakes in PFI projects, the value of which - estimated at around £180 million - is not reflected in its shares. Despite this summer's turmoil, the secondary market for PFI equity remains strong, meaning that the company is likely to be tempted to realise value from projects it has completed but does not run. Secondly, it draws one third of its operating profits from the Middle East, where, thanks to massive infrastructural investment in the Gulf, demand promises to remain strong for the next three to five years. Despite yesterday's near4 per cent rise to 492p, Interserve is still too cheap. Buy, says the Times.

Hikma is run by Said Darwazah, who has returned as chief executive after holding the post of minister of health in the Jordanian government between 2003 and 2006. He may find the second half of the year more challenging, when the market is expected to slow and Hikma has to digest two German businesses it bought to grow in injectibles for cancer care. The company is no longer the bargain it was a few months ago - it trades at more than 20 times future earnings - but it is worth a long-term bet, says the Telegraph.

In a terse statement, Britain's largest property company confirmed yesterday that it was "conducting a review of its business structure". In practice, that means one thing: the break-up of Land Securities into its three constituent parts - London real estate, retail and its Trillium outsourcing unit. The possibility of a shake-up proved enough to keep the shares steady at £18.27 amid yesterday's retreat by the FTSE 100. At that price, they sit at a 21 per cent discount to their net asset value of March 30, but the property market has cooled considerably since then, suggesting that they are at fair value. The likelihood of demerger makes it worth holding on, says the Times.

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