News

Wednesday tips round-up; Ashmore, Berkeley, Genus

17 September 2008 06:19:00

The fundamentals at fund manager Ashmore look soundly based after another impressive set of full-year figures. Management and performance fees are on the up, as is the dividend - a sign of management's long-term confidence.

The key will be whether investors are willing to ride out the short-term challenges and resist the temptation to push capital into gold, US Treasuries and other comfort blankets. If you can stand some short-term volatility, the long-term prognosis is positive. Hold says the Telegraph.

Buying Ashmore shares will be a prudent move before long, and they will outperform the sector, but the stock is moving on more than the group's performance, and has further to fall before any recovery. Sell says the Independent.

Department store Debenhams is an unloved stock. But yesterday it released a pre-close trading statement that contained relatively good news. Nevertheless, the retailer trades at a significant price earnings discount to the retail sector. This reflects some fears over forecasts. But it also means that the company is now undervalued. Be brave.Buy says the Telegraph.

The FT adds that the "known unknown" with Debenhams is the banking covenant on its considerable debt pile. Should the retailer breach the point, which must be about 4 times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, there will be pain in the form of tougher terms from creditors - albeit probably not a painful collapse.

The management should be applauded for an impressive trading performance in a dismal climate for consumer spending. That said, the 2008 enterprise value/ebitda ratio of 5 does not offer a discount to peers that have a more conventional capital structure.

Having cash at hand in the current land market - or in next year's market, once distressed sellers start to appear - could be a remarkable asset and could set housebuilder Berkeley up for a decade. It has net cash and the best management in the sector. On the minus side are corporate governance issues and that it is a housebuilder, a sector to be approached only by the hardiest investors says the FT.

The Independnet asks why on earth buyers would want exposure to the sector, which has already suffered greatly despite several economists predicting that the worst is yet to come, is beyond some. A long-term bet, which could be a very long-term bet, is worthwhile, but investors that buy Berkeley now would be brave. Sell.

Pigs do fly when animal gentics group Genus sends them out in hired Boeing jets to China, where the market for pork products is growing strongly.Forecasts for underlying profits this year have been nudged upwards to between £33m and £35m, putting the shares on a prospective price/earnings multiple of 21 - perhaps a little bullish, but the the company's record so far appears impressive says teh FT.

Genus is a solid, defensive group and even though the stock is not cheap, investors should see gains if they take the shares now.Buy say the Independent.

Vehicle renter Northgate yesterday issued a profit warning as it compared the economic climate to that of the early 1990s recession. Chief executive Steve Smith held out hope that, as in the 1990s, customers would soon realise that it's cheaper to rent vehicles rather than own them. On the positive side, the company has renewed the majority of its banking facilities.Trading on less than four times forecast earnings and yielding 9%, the shares are worth holding on to for the long term says the Telegraph.

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